只賺不止蝕

<<只賺不止蝕>> 不但集合了熱門網誌 - 市場先生自語 (http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market) 的精華文章，同時也敘述了一位長線投資者在上上落落的股市之中自處的心路歷程。

我最有興趣的，是市場先生個人經歷的分享：
92年炒外匯孖展輸晒幾萬蚊本金，期後睇報紙財經版跟講股佬買股由50幾萬輸剩15萬，再從失敗經歷反省而學會價值投資，到現在擁令衆人羨慕的投資組合...

當中不單見証了市場先生的個人努力與成長，更能鼓勵讀者同樣通過學習和實踐達成財務自由。

謝謝您，市場先生！

參考:
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/article?mid=156&fid=8&action=prev
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/article?mid=161&fid=8&action=prev

Analysis on Li & Fung (0494)

I try to apply the three methods mentioned in Buffettology again on 0494:

1) yield

• current stock price is $28.4, historical P/E is 42.33
• the current 10 year treasury yield is around 5%; Li & Fung earning yield is around 2.36%, 5-year average EPS growth rate = 15.59%

2) EPS

• assume EPS growth rate = 15%, diviend payout ratio = 90%

3) ROE

• assume ROE = 30%, diviend payout ratio = 90%, current price = $28.4

In short, if the expected P/E is 10-30 in 5 years time, the expected annual return is from -11.22% to 14.73%.

Note:
As of end 2006, the 5-year average EPS growth = 31%, 5-year dividend payout ratio = 92.37%, 5-year average ROE = 30.77%.

In 2006, the dividend payout ratio is 84%

As of 1H2007, EPS growth rate = 31%, ROE = 25.6%.

無憂理財7堂必修課

速讀蘇偉文的新作，當中帶出一些生活理財的基本但重要知識：

1. 目標 - 財富累積須要目標、計劃，一步步實行，並好好利用複息效果。
2. 規劃 - 金字塔式，緊急基金、保險、儲蓄及投資。
3. 消費 - 理財首要量入為出。
4. 投資 - 投資不單是為了保障將來，現在的生活水平亦須得到平衡；苦行僧式儲蓄並不可取。
5. 融資 - 投資融資與否取决於資金成本。
6. 保險 - 定期壽險 + 自行投資一般較儲蓄壽險有效累積財富。
7. 退休 - 移居海外或可提升生活質素、減少花費；須要時回歸香港，享受低廉醫療服務。

Dr 蘇不但分亨了他的成長經歷，也提醒讀者理財是手段，改善生活才是最終目標，千萬不要作金錢的奴隸。

一本非常值得一看的好書。

First Analysis on China Mobile (941)

I try to apply the three methods mentioned in Buffettology again:

1) yield

• current stock price is $96.6, historical P/E is 29.1
  
• the current 10 year treasury yield is around 5.x%; 941 earning yield is around 3.44%, 5-year average EPS growth rate = 18.2%

2) EPS

• assume EPS growth rate = 20%, diviend payout ratio = 45%

3) ROE

• assume ROE = 19%, diviend payout ratio = 45%, current price = $96.6

In short, if the expected P/E is 12-17 in 5 years time, the expected annual return is from -6.75% to 10.08%.

Note:
As of end 2006, the 5-year average EPS growth = 18.2%, 5-year dividend payout ratio = 32.22%, 5-year average ROE = 18.99%.

In 2006, the dividend payout ratio is 47.19%

As of 1H2007, EPS growth rate = 25.65%, ROE = 21.15%.

Roller Coaster

A deep-V rebound is found when looking into latest (17Aug07 Friday) intra-day chart of HSI, with high-low difference of 1374 points (from 20,761.31 to 19,386.72).

Complaints were heard that it was just like riding on Roller Coaster: feeling like a disaster & fear when it fell over 1200 points at 2:45pm; and feeling surprise & confident when it rebounded over 1000 points at 4:00pm.

This reminded me on Buffett's view of "Mr Market". Personally, I think acting unlike Mr Market is not easy, but it worth to train up the FQ, EQ, risk management as well as valuation technique in order not to be affected by the short term market movement.

Some value investors suggest to buy on the current bargain price, while some others suggest to cut-lose and re-balance. I don't know which one is better, but a sound and long-term risk management & allocation strategy should be in place.

Friends, good luck and enjoy the machine game in the exciting stock market theme park =)

First Analysis on HSBC

I try to apply the three methods mentioned in Buffettology:

1) yield

• the current 10 year treasury yield is around 5.x%; HSBC earning yield is around 7.5%, 5-year average EPS growth rate = 21%

2) ROE

• assume ROE = 15%, diviend payout ratio = 55%, current price = $142

3) EPS

• assume EPS growth rate = 20%, diviend payout ratio = 55%

In short, if the expected P/E is 12-15 in 5 years time, the expected annual return is 9.78%-28.09%.

Note:
As of end 2006, the 5-year average EPS growth = 21%, 5-year dividend payout ratio = 62.9%, 5-year average ROE = 12.81%.
As of 1H2007, EPS growth rate = 22%, ROE = 19.1%.